2021-12-31
2021 gross returns: 14.9%, or $436.4k (-35.6% YoY). Returns were down this year compared to last. Some of this is due to the tech stock roll out, and the taking of profits that resulted therein (i.e. we didn't have the same amount of risk on). Also, we only had one private payout in 2021, the rump, undersized payment from ValFund II. But the biggest contribution was the lackluster performance of BABA. We put on most of our position at the end of 2020, and have seen nothing but declines since then. We sold out of some in the summer, realizing $111k of losses, but the stock continued to fall. As of the end of the year the stock was at $118 (against our current WA holding price of $215), implying an unrealized loss of another $111k, for a total loss on the position of $222k. Without this position, our return profile would have been similar to 2020 (+22.2%); with it, we made $436.4k against $2,927.9k of WA capital, for a return of +14.7%.
Comparing against market equivalents (QQQ for "Tech", SPY for "Other Stocks", AGG for "Bonds", PSP for "PE/VC", GLD for "Other"), the results show a close tracking of market returns. An imaginary investor starting with $100 at the end of 2016 in the Nakano-weighted market portfolio would have $162.2 after five years; we have $171.3. On an IRR basis, the market portfolio returns 8.8%; Nakano returns 12.5%. Over the last three years (skipping the 2018 down year), market = $170.8 (15.6% IRR); Nakano = $171.3 (23.6% IRR). It pains me to point out that without BABA we'd have $182.5.
In conclusion, our performance isn't lighting any chat boards on fire. Of course, we are underestimating our returns if there are MTM gains in our private portfolio, which we believe there are (the only returns we're showing for the private investments is actual gross cash received back as a percentage of our investment). Our average expense ratio of running Nakano is 62bps; the Nakano-weighted average of an index portfolio would be 95bps, so that is also in our favor, if modestly so. Ultimately, I'd say we've been treading a bit above the water with our capital, while having funded some potentially lucrative private deals. Pretty much what our expectations have been since we opened our eTrade account.
Consolidated cash, quarterly
Balances by account
2021 spend by line item (consolidated)
2021 expenses: $27.9k (+18.5% YoY). Office rent was slightly up due to Rad's annual inflation adjustment and the 0.5% increase in sales tax. This is true every year, so is expected. The big increase was in Office Furniture; we had to buy an additional desk and chair this year, which we've never done before. Subscriptions were also up (this is where the credit card bill is shown, so there is a little "marketing" or whatever we should accurately call our rugby event in DC), while legal/accounting was down, largely offsetting each other. Ultimately, the increase in net spend this year from last can be accounted for by the furniture spending, which was a one-off. Still, total expense remained low on an Expense Ratio basis, at 73bps.
no data
Private deals done: 4, or $587.9k (+35.0% YoY). A blend of upsizing and new deals circumscribed our 2021. We significantly increased our common equity position in ScreenMeet to almost $575k, a 2.5x goosing. In addition, we put another €50k (~$63k) into NextAlim via a convertible bond ahead of their expected IPO, bringing our total position to €100k (~$120k). The new deals comprised a $50k piece of Assembly Authority, a white glove installation company mostly focused on playgrounds, and a $100k investment in Bloom Intelligence, a digital advertising firm. In total, this was our busiest year in the private arena.
| Deal | First funding | Invested | Cash received | Remaining value | MOIC | Outperformance case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakano Investments LLC | ||||||
| ScreenMeet Cloud-native remote support SaaS (Principal: Ben Lilienthal) | Jun 2021 | $574,999 | — | $574,999 | 1.00× | — |
| Northfield Residential real-estate development (Principal: Patrick Zalupski) | Aug 2020 | $250,000 | — | $250,000 | 1.00× | — |
| Smartemis Veterinary services — France, Germany (Principal: Bill Hughson) | Mar 2022 | $185,490 | — | $185,490 | 1.00× | — |
| NextAlim | May 2021 | $120,426 | — | $120,426 | 1.00× | — |
| BloomIntel Restaurant marketing — Bloom Intelligence (Principal: Will Wilson) | Aug 2021 | $100,000 | — | $100,000 | 1.00× | — |
| TAAEquity | Apr 2021 | $50,000 | — | $50,000 | 1.00× | — |
| Nakano subtotal | $1,280,915 | $0 | $1,280,915 | 1.00× | ||
| Consolidated | $1,280,915 | $0 | $1,280,915 | 1.00× | ||
Invested (light) vs total value — paler segment is cash already returned
All public securities are held at Nakano Investments (eTrade and Interactive Brokers). Centerpitch holds no public positions.
NAV bridge: open positions $1.91M + eTrade cash $16k + IBKR cash $110k (margin loan) = $2.03M ≈ combined broker NAV $2.03M — brokerage NAV nets cash and margin against the securities.
Daily marks — securities value by account
Performance vs indexes (time-weighted)
| Cumulative | CAGR | 2021 YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | +51.6% | +17.3% | +42.4% |
| Blended benchmark | +68.0% | +22.0% | +28.7% |
| S&P 500 | +75.9% | +24.2% | +28.7% |
| MSCI ACWI | +56.8% | +18.8% | +18.7% |
| Japan (EWJ) | +31.4% | +11.0% | +1.2% |
| Europe (VGK) | +39.1% | +13.5% | +16.9% |
Time-weighted: daily returns of the securities book chained with buys/sells neutralized as external flows; dividends and option premiums count as return. Base 100 on 2019-05-24. The blended benchmark applies the portfolio's own daily bucket weights to matching index returns (US equities→SPY, Japan equities→EWJ, Europe equities→VGK, China equities→MCHI, US bonds/bills→BIL, Crypto→ETH-USD; dividend-adjusted USD ETFs). Current mix: US equities 100%. T-bill discounts recognize at purchase; delisted names (ALRN, LUMO) excluded.
Open positions
| Ticker | Qty | Cost basis | Last price (local) | MTM (USD) | Gain | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| eTrade | ||||||
| ABBV | 2,000 | $212,237 | $135.40 | $270,800 | +27.6% | 14.2% |
| GS Goldman Sachs Group | 600 | $196,135 | $382.55 | $229,530 | +17.0% | 12.0% |
| CVS | 1,500 | $115,393 | $103.16 | $154,740 | +34.1% | 8.1% |
| JNJ | 900 | $138,599 | $171.07 | $153,963 | +11.1% | 8.1% |
| MO | 3,000 | $141,842 | $47.39 | $142,170 | +0.2% | 7.5% |
| NEE NextEra Energy | 1,500 | $117,981 | $93.36 | $140,040 | +18.7% | 7.3% |
| SBLK | 6,000 | $119,131 | $22.67 | $136,020 | +14.2% | 7.1% |
| C | 2,000 | $141,818 | $60.39 | $120,780 | -14.8% | 6.3% |
| GLD | 625 | $106,413 | $170.96 | $106,850 | +0.4% | 5.6% |
| BABA | 850 | $195,507 | $118.79 | $100,972 | -48.4% | 5.3% |
| SLRC | 3,500 | $58,150 | $18.43 | $64,505 | +10.9% | 3.4% |
| NVDA | 200 | $61,278 | $294.11 | $58,822 | -4.0% | 3.1% |
| CMPS | 2,500 | $79,610 | $22.10 | $55,250 | -30.6% | 2.9% |
| FMC | 400 | $44,479 | $109.89 | $43,956 | -1.2% | 2.3% |
| BX | 300 | $42,262 | $129.39 | $38,817 | -8.2% | 2.0% |
| LMT | 100 | $32,995 | $355.41 | $35,541 | +7.7% | 1.9% |
| MSFT | 80 | $26,559 | $336.32 | $26,906 | +1.3% | 1.4% |
| UEC Uranium Energy | 8,000 | $31,420 | $3.35 | $26,800 | -14.7% | 1.4% |
| eTrade subtotal | $1,861,807 | $1,906,461 | ||||
Realized results by year
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Realized G/L | $33k | $169k | $408k | $610k |
| Dividends | $10k | $23k | $59k | $92k |
Net public investments made: -22k shares, or $1,001.4k (down -81.7% YoY). The theme of the year in these positions has been two-fold: 1) the lack of reasonable fixed income investments (our bond purchases declined from ~$2m in 2020 to $28.7k in 2021, and that small amount only via the IVOL ETF); and 2) a shift out of tech stocks and into dividend stocks toward the end of the year. We continue to make some "punts" which are over-represented in the number of shares in the data (since they tend to be smaller stocks), but in fact only comprise a small portion of our holdings on a value basis ($218k out of $1,925k as of YE 2021). The new investments here were SBLK (a shipping company), SEDG (a solar power company), UEC (a uranium miner), and CMPS (a psilocybin-focused pharma firm).
Consolidated
| Line item | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Rent | 4,170 | 14,778 | 15,065 | 15,391 | 15,855 | 16,638 | 14,641 | 16,061 | 7,327 | 119,925 | ||
| Office Furniture | 4,329 | 2,941 | 3,400 | 10,670 | ||||||||
| Office Supplies | 0 | |||||||||||
| Office-Related Expenses | 4,170 | 14,778 | 15,065 | 19,721 | 18,795 | 20,038 | 14,641 | 16,061 | 7,327 | 130,595 | ||
| Webpage Email | 393 | 480 | 578 | 180 | 354 | 192 | 522 | 728 | 2,345 | 1,525 | 7,295 | |
| Subscriptions | 1 | 3,097 | 819 | 1,589 | 439 | 5,945 | ||||||
| Video Meeting Services | 158 | 167 | 148 | 154 | 161 | 173 | 184 | 1,145 | ||||
| Business Applications | 249 | 249 | 441 | 383 | 120 | 1,442 | ||||||
| Other Business Services | 22 | 52 | 402 | 149 | 625 | |||||||
| Operational Expenses | 393 | 501 | 578 | 338 | 770 | 643 | 4,214 | 2,090 | 4,629 | 2,297 | 16,452 | |
| Client Entertainment | 8,044 | 8,970 | 2,015 | 2,488 | 21,517 | |||||||
| Internal Events | 4,506 | 3,105 | 860 | 8,471 | ||||||||
| Business Travel | 1,157 | 5,438 | 6,595 | |||||||||
| Client Expenses | 13,707 | 17,514 | 2,015 | 3,348 | 36,584 | |||||||
| Legal Fees | 2,376 | 839 | 1,459 | 164 | 278 | 5,115 | ||||||
| Accountant Fees | 2,890 | 1,800 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 1,600 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 3,850 | 22,640 | ||
| State/City Fees | 75 | 169 | 319 | 278 | 282 | 1,122 | ||||||
| Bank Service Fees | 295 | 110 | 175 | 382 | 611 | 51 | 234 | 110 | 1,866 | |||
| Wire Fees | 225 | 240 | 290 | 100 | 60 | 65 | 425 | 50 | 1,455 | |||
| Foreign Currency Charges | 2 | 0 | 3 | 237 | 0 | 2 | 244 | |||||
| Advisory and Fees | 225 | 5,581 | 3,224 | 4,338 | 2,737 | 2,529 | 3,114 | 3,388 | 3,012 | 4,294 | 32,443 | |
| Other Expenses | 2,881 | 1,400 | 99 | 1,580 | ||||||||
| Error | 706 | 1,139 | 1,316 | 681 | 643 | 844 | ||||||
| Miscellaneous | 2,175 | 261 | 1,316 | 780 | 643 | 736 | ||||||
| Creditcard | 4,755 | 2,395 | 8,102 | 4,015 | 6,120 | 14,340 | 8,441 | 2,127 | 1,099 | 12 | 51,382 | |
| Total Expenses | 5,373 | 12,647 | 28,856 | 23,494 | 28,031 | 36,308 | 50,295 | 39,759 | 26,173 | 17,254 | 268,191 |
Nakano
| Line item | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Rent | 4,170 | 14,778 | 15,065 | 15,391 | 15,855 | 6,374 | 71,633 | |||||
| Office Furniture | 4,329 | 2,941 | 3,400 | 10,670 | ||||||||
| Office Supplies | 0 | |||||||||||
| Office-Related Expenses | 4,170 | 14,778 | 15,065 | 19,721 | 18,795 | 9,774 | 82,303 | |||||
| Webpage Email | 393 | 480 | 578 | 180 | 354 | 192 | 522 | 678 | 2,345 | 1,525 | 7,246 | |
| Subscriptions | 1 | 402 | 393 | 873 | 54 | 1,723 | ||||||
| Video Meeting Services | 158 | 167 | 148 | 154 | 161 | 173 | 184 | 1,145 | ||||
| Business Applications | 249 | 249 | 336 | 278 | 120 | 1,232 | ||||||
| Other Business Services | 22 | 52 | 74 | |||||||||
| Operational Expenses | 393 | 501 | 578 | 338 | 770 | 643 | 1,414 | 1,510 | 3,511 | 1,763 | 11,419 | |
| Client Entertainment | 3,323 | 3,323 | ||||||||||
| Internal Events | 2,525 | 422 | 2,946 | |||||||||
| Business Travel | 3,322 | 3,322 | ||||||||||
| Client Expenses | 799 | 3,743 | 2,944 | |||||||||
| Legal Fees | 2,376 | 839 | 1,459 | 164 | 139 | 4,976 | ||||||
| Accountant Fees | 2,890 | 1,800 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 1,600 | 2,500 | 13,790 | |||||
| State/City Fees | 75 | 169 | 319 | 144 | 706 | |||||||
| Bank Service Fees | 295 | 110 | 175 | 382 | 580 | 180 | 234 | 110 | 1,706 | |||
| Wire Fees | 225 | 240 | 290 | 100 | 60 | 65 | 980 | |||||
| Foreign Currency Charges | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 28 | |||||
| Advisory and Fees | 225 | 5,581 | 3,224 | 4,338 | 2,737 | 2,529 | 3,083 | 20 | 234 | 255 | 22,187 | |
| Other Expenses | 2,881 | 1,400 | 1,481 | |||||||||
| Error | 706 | 1,139 | 1,316 | 213 | 1,096 | |||||||
| Miscellaneous | 2,175 | 261 | 1,316 | 213 | 384 | |||||||
| Creditcard | 4,755 | 2,395 | 8,102 | 4,015 | 6,120 | 14,340 | 8,441 | 2,127 | 1,099 | 12 | 51,382 | |
| Total Expenses | 5,373 | 12,647 | 28,856 | 23,494 | 28,031 | 36,308 | 21,914 | 7,359 | 4,631 | 2,006 | 170,620 |
Centerpitch
| Line item | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Rent | 10,264 | 14,641 | 16,061 | 7,327 | 48,292 | |||||||
| Office Furniture | 0 | |||||||||||
| Office Supplies | 0 | |||||||||||
| Office-Related Expenses | 10,264 | 14,641 | 16,061 | 7,327 | 48,292 | |||||||
| Webpage Email | 50 | 50 | ||||||||||
| Subscriptions | 2,695 | 426 | 716 | 385 | 4,222 | |||||||
| Video Meeting Services | 0 | |||||||||||
| Business Applications | 105 | 105 | 210 | |||||||||
| Other Business Services | 402 | 149 | 551 | |||||||||
| Operational Expenses | 2,800 | 580 | 1,118 | 534 | 5,032 | |||||||
| Client Entertainment | 11,368 | 8,970 | 2,015 | 2,488 | 24,841 | |||||||
| Internal Events | 1,982 | 2,684 | 860 | 5,525 | ||||||||
| Business Travel | 1,157 | 2,117 | 3,274 | |||||||||
| Client Expenses | 14,506 | 13,771 | 2,015 | 3,348 | 33,640 | |||||||
| Legal Fees | 139 | 139 | ||||||||||
| Accountant Fees | 2,500 | 2,500 | 3,850 | 8,850 | ||||||||
| State/City Fees | 278 | 139 | 416 | |||||||||
| Bank Service Fees | 31 | 129 | 160 | |||||||||
| Wire Fees | 425 | 50 | 475 | |||||||||
| Foreign Currency Charges | 216 | 216 | ||||||||||
| Advisory and Fees | 31 | 3,408 | 2,778 | 4,039 | 10,256 | |||||||
| Other Expenses | 99 | 99 | ||||||||||
| Error | 681 | 429 | 252 | |||||||||
| Miscellaneous | 780 | 429 | 351 | |||||||||
| Creditcard | 0 | |||||||||||
| Total Expenses | 28,381 | 32,400 | 21,542 | 15,247 | 97,571 |