2025-09-30
Our overall cash position turned negative in Q3. This was the result of temporary margin usage in eTrade and IBKR to take new positions (PFE in eTrade and ASML in IBKR). Since the end of Q3, I have been moving into more cash in anticipation of a possible downturn. These balances are now positive.
Consolidated cash, quarterly
Balances by account
2025 spend by line item (consolidated)
Q3 2025 expenses: $17.0k (-43.4% YoY, on annualized basis). Expenses were down significantly on an annualized basis from 2024. The two big increases were in Office Rent (+24.8% to $13,618) and Webpage Email (+271.3% to $1,139). The Office Rent increase is incorrect, a quick examination found. Our rent was changed twice this year, and in the process of doing so, we double paid for three months. In fact, the increase is only about 2% YoY. I have already spoken to Christie about this and we will true up at the end of the year. In terms of Webpage Email, this is a true increase; both Google and GoDaddy have signficantly boosted their prices. The other categories were down significantly: Client Expenses (-84.6% to $2,704), Avisory and Fees (-23% to $2,625), and Credit Card (-22.1% to $1,829).
Two notes:
- We paid for a two-year subscription to Grants in 2023, which will need to be renewed in December for approx. $2,800.
- We pay our accountant fees in the last part of the year (I just paid them), which are about $2,500.
Our expense ratio also fell in line with our gross expenses. The last time I reported this was in 2023, when the ratio (annual expenses / net asset value) was 0.45%. For this period, it is 0.33%, or annualized expenses of $22.8k against our current mark of $7.8m.
Nakano doesn't attract much of our expense base since we opened Centerpitch in 2023 (Q3 2025 Nakano expenses: $1,821, -68.7% YoY annualized); Centerpitch attracts the majority ($15,149, -37.3% YoY annualized).
As of Q3 2025, Nakano equity stood at $1.704M. Total equity peaked at $2.654M, and started drawing down on Feb 1, 2023, initially with a $96k disbursement for Northfield and Linden Terrace. The majority of the draw down related to the funding of Centerpitch, which was stood up on March 9, 2023.
Nakano is designed to be an 80/20 entity. As of Q3 2025, the split is slightly off target at 79.8% Drexler / 20.2% Wiesner. This is due to the fact that Matt has not yet taken a $4k distribution from the July 30, 2025 payment from Northfield. When he does, the ratio will return to 80/20, with Drexler holding $1.360M of Nakano's equity, and Wiesner with $340k.
As of Q3 2025, Centerpitch equity stood at $1.001M. Centerpitch solely funds the Photon Vault and part of the Smartemis investments, as well as joint expenses, such as the office rent. Centerpitch is designed to be a 50/50 entity; as of Q3 2025 the ratio is slightly off, 51.7% Drexler / 48.3% Wiesner. Given the timing, it is no doubt related to our most recent Smartemis funding. The difference is modest, and I am inclined to leave it as it is for now.
We made no new private investments in 2025.
| Deal | First funding | Invested | Cash received | Remaining value | MOIC | Outperformance case |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakano Investments LLC | ||||||
| Smartemis Veterinary services — France, Germany (Principal: Bill Hughson) | Mar 2022 | $633,683 | — | $2,500,000 | 3.95× | $5,500,000 |
| ScreenMeet Cloud-native remote support SaaS (Principal: Ben Lilienthal) | Jun 2021 | $574,999 | — | $613,000 | 1.07× | $2,300,000 |
| Northfield Residential real-estate development (Principal: Patrick Zalupski) | Aug 2020 | $250,000 | $505,000 | $0 | 0.48× | $625,000 |
| BloomIntel Restaurant marketing — Bloom Intelligence (Principal: Will Wilson) | Aug 2021 | $100,000 | — | $0 | 0.00× | $300,000 |
| LungThera Biotech — now Rein Therapeutics, RNTX (Principal: Brian Windsor) | Mar 2022 | $50,000 | — | $0 | 0.00× | $300,000 |
| Nakano subtotal | $1,608,682 | $505,000 | $3,113,000 | 2.01× | ||
| Centerpitch Investments LLC | ||||||
| SmartemisCP Veterinary services — Centerpitch tranche | Jun 2023 | $812,750 | — | $2,100,000 | 2.58× | $4,600,000 |
| PhotonVault Waste-heat battery storage (Principals: Kent McCormick, John Langhus) | Mar 2023 | $100,000 | — | $0 | 0.00× | $300,000 |
| Centerpitch subtotal | $912,750 | $0 | $2,100,000 | 2.30× | ||
| Consolidated | $2,521,433 | $505,000 | $5,213,000 | 2.12× | ||
Invested (light) vs total value — paler segment is cash already returned
- Smartemis (Nakano: $633.7k invested, $2.5m MTM; Centerpitch: $812.8k invested, $2.1m MTM): Our largest position, with $1.4m invested across both entities. The company is getting close to its planned exit, which it must execute before Dec 31, 2027. Bill has met with ~40 potential exit partners for 1-on-1s, organized by three potential investment banking partners: Jeffries, Lincoln International, and William Blair. Feedback has been very positive. Two operational issues remain, both in France: the continuing (spurious) regulatory investigation into whether Smartemis exerts undue control over network clinics — our law firm Winston & Strawn insists the case has no merit — and access to data from the French clinics, where we have not yet successfully extracted conforming data from a single clinic. France is only 20% of revenue, but we need a functioning second market before going to market. As of Nov 30: 132 clinics, €154m ($180m) of revenue, 559 vets, and a €44m pipeline.
- ScreenMeet ($575k invested, $613k MTM, $2.3m outperformance): In 2024 they missed out on an expected sale to ServiceNow; Ben has come back in hands-on. Revenue grew 26% YoY through Oct with expenses up only 6%; EBITDA positive in 2025 ($664.8k YTD); ranked #1,643 on the Inc. 5000. Plan is to stabilize earnings for a sale in 2026. Held at 4x revenue (market is 8x–10x) out of conservatism and strategic-exit realism.
- Photon Vault ($100k invested, $0 MTM): Still struggling to fund their first project. As of December they have traction with CIM Group ($130B AUM), pitching $5M Series A + $45M project equity on Dec 10. This looks like their last push; if they can't raise, they shut down. We hold at 0.
- Bloom Intelligence ($100k invested, $0 MTM): Holding pattern — ~$1m revenue, churn <1% monthly, barely profitable. Will proposes a shareholder vote between "Cash Flow Optimization" (continue, pay down debt, position for sale) and "Growth Acceleration" (raise $1M, scale 3x–10x). Our preference is overwhelmingly the former. Best option: find a partner and get bought.
- Lung Therapeutics / Rein Therapeutics (RNTX) ($50k initial, $0 MTM): Merged into Aileron to become Rein on Oct 31, 2023. Lead asset LTI-03 (IPF) restarted Phase 2 after the FDA lifted its clinical hold Nov 3; results expected Q3 2026. Value has fallen 69% over our holding period; we hold it as a lottery ticket at the current stock price.
- Northfield / Dreamfinders ($250k invested, $120k MTM, $505k received): Continues to pay at its idiosyncratic rate. We expect another $120k, bringing the total return to 2.5x on invested capital; timing unclear until the next K-1. Cash-on-cash 102% to date, IRR 14.8% — neither particularly compelling given the bull market of the last five years.
All public securities are held at Nakano Investments (eTrade and Interactive Brokers). Centerpitch holds no public positions.
NAV bridge: open positions $1.27M + eTrade cash -$48k + IBKR cash -$23k (margin loan) = $1.20M ≈ combined broker NAV $1.40M — brokerage NAV nets cash and margin against the securities.
Daily marks — securities value by account
Performance vs indexes (time-weighted)
| Cumulative | CAGR | 2025 YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | +201.7% | +19.0% | +57.7% |
| Blended benchmark | +133.7% | +14.3% | +17.8% |
| S&P 500 | +160.0% | +16.2% | +14.7% |
| MSCI ACWI | +117.9% | +13.0% | +18.6% |
| Japan (EWJ) | +67.7% | +8.5% | +20.5% |
| Europe (VGK) | +83.7% | +10.0% | +28.4% |
Time-weighted: daily returns of the securities book chained with buys/sells neutralized as external flows; dividends and option premiums count as return. Base 100 on 2019-05-24. The blended benchmark applies the portfolio's own daily bucket weights to matching index returns (US equities→SPY, Japan equities→EWJ, Europe equities→VGK, China equities→MCHI, US bonds/bills→BIL, Crypto→ETH-USD; dividend-adjusted USD ETFs). Current mix: US equities 60%, Japan equities 28%, Europe equities 11%, China equities 1%. T-bill discounts recognize at purchase; delisted names (ALRN, LUMO) excluded.
Open positions
| Ticker | Qty | Cost basis | Last price (local) | MTM (USD) | Gain | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| eTrade | ||||||
| GOOG Alphabet (Class C) | 650 | $63,462 | $243.55 | $158,308 | +149.5% | 12.5% |
| GS Goldman Sachs Group | 150 | $51,075 | $796.35 | $119,452 | +133.9% | 9.4% |
| ABBV | 500 | $54,308 | $231.54 | $115,770 | +113.2% | 9.1% |
| WMT Walmart | 600 | $31,378 | $103.06 | $61,836 | +97.1% | 4.9% |
| NEE NextEra Energy | 700 | $39,534 | $75.49 | $52,843 | +33.7% | 4.2% |
| PFE | 2,000 | $48,190 | $25.48 | $50,960 | +5.7% | 4.0% |
| TPB | 500 | $14,213 | $98.86 | $49,430 | +247.8% | 3.9% |
| AMZN Amazon.com | 200 | $37,000 | $219.57 | $43,914 | +18.7% | 3.5% |
| LMT | 50 | $16,498 | $499.21 | $24,960 | +51.3% | 2.0% |
| ECC Eagle Point Credit | 3,000 | $22,350 | $6.61 | $19,830 | -11.3% | 1.6% |
| CMG | 500 | $26,370 | $39.19 | $19,595 | -25.7% | 1.5% |
| APO Apollo Global Management | 100 | $11,284 | $133.27 | $13,327 | +18.1% | 1.0% |
| ABBV Jan 16 '26 $240 Call short leg (sold beyond long inventory) | -3 | $0 | no price | — | — | — |
| eTrade subtotal | $415,661 | $730,226 | ||||
| IBKR | ||||||
| 7011.T Mitsubishi Heavy Industries | 10,000 | $57,939 | ¥3,879.00 | $261,045 | +350.6% | 20.6% |
| BNP BNP Paribas (BNP.PA) | 1,000 | $71,973 | €77.33 | $90,719 | +26.0% | 7.1% |
| 8031.T Mitsui & Co | 2,200 | $36,504 | ¥3,680.00 | $54,484 | +49.3% | 4.3% |
| COIN Coinbase Global | 100 | $31,846 | $337.49 | $33,749 | +6.0% | 2.7% |
| 5020.T ENEOS Holdings | 4,000 | $16,721 | ¥939.89 | $25,301 | +51.3% | 2.0% |
| ASML ASML Holding (ASML.AS) | 20 | $15,908 | €828.10 | $19,430 | +22.1% | 1.5% |
| FMNB Leonardo SpA (LDO.MI) | 300 | $6,836 | €54.02 | $19,012 | +178.1% | 1.5% |
| BA. BAE Systems (BA.L) | 520 | $8,298 | £20.59 | $14,387 | +73.4% | 1.1% |
| 3382.T Seven & i Holdings | 1,000 | $13,411 | ¥1,990.99 | $13,399 | -0.1% | 1.1% |
| 651 Gree Electric (000651.SZ) | 1,500 | $8,320 | CN¥39.72 | $8,369 | +0.6% | 0.7% |
| RHM Rheinmetall (RHM.DE) | 90 | $31,258 | no price | — | — | — |
| IBKR subtotal | $299,012 | $539,894 | ||||
No market price (delisted / corporate action pending): RHM, ABBV Jan 16 '26 $240 Call — carried outside MTM totals.
Realized results by year
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Realized G/L | $33k | $169k | $408k | -$277k | $4k | -$361 | $85k | $422k |
| Dividends | $10k | $23k | $59k | $84k | $28k | $31k | $21k | $255k |
Our public holdings are split between eTrade (domestic, $745.2k) and IBKR (international, $675.5k), both Nakano assets — total holdings $1.4m as of Dec 18, 2025. A detailed performance analysis will be produced for year end.
Consolidated
| Line item | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Rent | 4,170 | 14,778 | 15,065 | 15,391 | 15,855 | 16,638 | 14,641 | 16,061 | 7,327 | 119,925 | ||
| Office Furniture | 4,329 | 2,941 | 3,400 | 10,670 | ||||||||
| Office Supplies | 0 | |||||||||||
| Office-Related Expenses | 4,170 | 14,778 | 15,065 | 19,721 | 18,795 | 20,038 | 14,641 | 16,061 | 7,327 | 130,595 | ||
| Webpage Email | 393 | 480 | 578 | 180 | 354 | 192 | 522 | 728 | 2,345 | 1,525 | 7,295 | |
| Subscriptions | 1 | 3,097 | 819 | 1,589 | 439 | 5,945 | ||||||
| Video Meeting Services | 158 | 167 | 148 | 154 | 161 | 173 | 184 | 1,145 | ||||
| Business Applications | 249 | 249 | 441 | 383 | 120 | 1,442 | ||||||
| Other Business Services | 22 | 52 | 402 | 149 | 625 | |||||||
| Operational Expenses | 393 | 501 | 578 | 338 | 770 | 643 | 4,214 | 2,090 | 4,629 | 2,297 | 16,452 | |
| Client Entertainment | 8,044 | 8,970 | 2,015 | 2,488 | 21,517 | |||||||
| Internal Events | 4,506 | 3,105 | 860 | 8,471 | ||||||||
| Business Travel | 1,157 | 5,438 | 6,595 | |||||||||
| Client Expenses | 13,707 | 17,514 | 2,015 | 3,348 | 36,584 | |||||||
| Legal Fees | 2,376 | 839 | 1,459 | 164 | 278 | 5,115 | ||||||
| Accountant Fees | 2,890 | 1,800 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 1,600 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 3,850 | 22,640 | ||
| State/City Fees | 75 | 169 | 319 | 278 | 282 | 1,122 | ||||||
| Bank Service Fees | 295 | 110 | 175 | 382 | 611 | 51 | 234 | 110 | 1,866 | |||
| Wire Fees | 225 | 240 | 290 | 100 | 60 | 65 | 425 | 50 | 1,455 | |||
| Foreign Currency Charges | 2 | 0 | 3 | 237 | 0 | 2 | 244 | |||||
| Advisory and Fees | 225 | 5,581 | 3,224 | 4,338 | 2,737 | 2,529 | 3,114 | 3,388 | 3,012 | 4,294 | 32,443 | |
| Other Expenses | 2,881 | 1,400 | 99 | 1,580 | ||||||||
| Error | 706 | 1,139 | 1,316 | 681 | 643 | 844 | ||||||
| Miscellaneous | 2,175 | 261 | 1,316 | 780 | 643 | 736 | ||||||
| Creditcard | 4,755 | 2,395 | 8,102 | 4,015 | 6,120 | 14,340 | 8,441 | 2,127 | 1,099 | 12 | 51,382 | |
| Total Expenses | 5,373 | 12,647 | 28,856 | 23,494 | 28,031 | 36,308 | 50,295 | 39,759 | 26,173 | 17,254 | 268,191 |
Nakano
| Line item | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Rent | 4,170 | 14,778 | 15,065 | 15,391 | 15,855 | 6,374 | 71,633 | |||||
| Office Furniture | 4,329 | 2,941 | 3,400 | 10,670 | ||||||||
| Office Supplies | 0 | |||||||||||
| Office-Related Expenses | 4,170 | 14,778 | 15,065 | 19,721 | 18,795 | 9,774 | 82,303 | |||||
| Webpage Email | 393 | 480 | 578 | 180 | 354 | 192 | 522 | 678 | 2,345 | 1,525 | 7,246 | |
| Subscriptions | 1 | 402 | 393 | 873 | 54 | 1,723 | ||||||
| Video Meeting Services | 158 | 167 | 148 | 154 | 161 | 173 | 184 | 1,145 | ||||
| Business Applications | 249 | 249 | 336 | 278 | 120 | 1,232 | ||||||
| Other Business Services | 22 | 52 | 74 | |||||||||
| Operational Expenses | 393 | 501 | 578 | 338 | 770 | 643 | 1,414 | 1,510 | 3,511 | 1,763 | 11,419 | |
| Client Entertainment | 3,323 | 3,323 | ||||||||||
| Internal Events | 2,525 | 422 | 2,946 | |||||||||
| Business Travel | 3,322 | 3,322 | ||||||||||
| Client Expenses | 799 | 3,743 | 2,944 | |||||||||
| Legal Fees | 2,376 | 839 | 1,459 | 164 | 139 | 4,976 | ||||||
| Accountant Fees | 2,890 | 1,800 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 1,600 | 2,500 | 13,790 | |||||
| State/City Fees | 75 | 169 | 319 | 144 | 706 | |||||||
| Bank Service Fees | 295 | 110 | 175 | 382 | 580 | 180 | 234 | 110 | 1,706 | |||
| Wire Fees | 225 | 240 | 290 | 100 | 60 | 65 | 980 | |||||
| Foreign Currency Charges | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 28 | |||||
| Advisory and Fees | 225 | 5,581 | 3,224 | 4,338 | 2,737 | 2,529 | 3,083 | 20 | 234 | 255 | 22,187 | |
| Other Expenses | 2,881 | 1,400 | 1,481 | |||||||||
| Error | 706 | 1,139 | 1,316 | 213 | 1,096 | |||||||
| Miscellaneous | 2,175 | 261 | 1,316 | 213 | 384 | |||||||
| Creditcard | 4,755 | 2,395 | 8,102 | 4,015 | 6,120 | 14,340 | 8,441 | 2,127 | 1,099 | 12 | 51,382 | |
| Total Expenses | 5,373 | 12,647 | 28,856 | 23,494 | 28,031 | 36,308 | 21,914 | 7,359 | 4,631 | 2,006 | 170,620 |
Centerpitch
| Line item | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office Rent | 10,264 | 14,641 | 16,061 | 7,327 | 48,292 | |||||||
| Office Furniture | 0 | |||||||||||
| Office Supplies | 0 | |||||||||||
| Office-Related Expenses | 10,264 | 14,641 | 16,061 | 7,327 | 48,292 | |||||||
| Webpage Email | 50 | 50 | ||||||||||
| Subscriptions | 2,695 | 426 | 716 | 385 | 4,222 | |||||||
| Video Meeting Services | 0 | |||||||||||
| Business Applications | 105 | 105 | 210 | |||||||||
| Other Business Services | 402 | 149 | 551 | |||||||||
| Operational Expenses | 2,800 | 580 | 1,118 | 534 | 5,032 | |||||||
| Client Entertainment | 11,368 | 8,970 | 2,015 | 2,488 | 24,841 | |||||||
| Internal Events | 1,982 | 2,684 | 860 | 5,525 | ||||||||
| Business Travel | 1,157 | 2,117 | 3,274 | |||||||||
| Client Expenses | 14,506 | 13,771 | 2,015 | 3,348 | 33,640 | |||||||
| Legal Fees | 139 | 139 | ||||||||||
| Accountant Fees | 2,500 | 2,500 | 3,850 | 8,850 | ||||||||
| State/City Fees | 278 | 139 | 416 | |||||||||
| Bank Service Fees | 31 | 129 | 160 | |||||||||
| Wire Fees | 425 | 50 | 475 | |||||||||
| Foreign Currency Charges | 216 | 216 | ||||||||||
| Advisory and Fees | 31 | 3,408 | 2,778 | 4,039 | 10,256 | |||||||
| Other Expenses | 99 | 99 | ||||||||||
| Error | 681 | 429 | 252 | |||||||||
| Miscellaneous | 780 | 429 | 351 | |||||||||
| Creditcard | 0 | |||||||||||
| Total Expenses | 28,381 | 32,400 | 21,542 | 15,247 | 97,571 |